Analysis of project shedule risk indexes in PERT network using Monte Carlo simulation
it is convenient and effective to use Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique in project schedule risk analysis and assessment,but at the same time,the indexes put forward by scholars up to now is quite few,leaving construction schedule risk assessment still difficult to carry out.Therefore,based on PERT network assumption,the shortcomings of current project schedule risk indexes are summarized and new project schedule risk index is put forward to estimate the criticality of each activity and path to provide more information for project schedule controllers.In the case studied,with the application of the new index,the critical index of each activity is given and divided into five levels,and the new index put forward in this paper shows great superiority over the classic indexes.
schedule risk analysis and assessment criticality Program Evaluation and Review Techinique(PERT) project management Monte Carlo simulatoin
Yuan Liu Zhuofu Wang
Institute of Construction Engineering & Management,Hohai University Nanjing,China
国际会议
郑州
英文
728-734
2013-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）