Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model for Vegetable Price in Hainan

摘要：

　　Hainan is the national peoples Vegetable Basket in winter.It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable market price in Hainan for farmers cultivating vegetable garden good and government holding vegetable basket steady.The theory of combination forecasting is practicable in complex economic system.In view of complexity of vegetable market system, by using the data of vegetable market price in Hainan, three models are set up separately which are Triple exponential smoothing model, simple linear regression model, and grey forecasting model.Then, an optimal combination forecasting model is constructed based on three models above.The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the optimal combination forecasting model is superior to the single model, and the model overcomes limitation of the single model and effectively improves the prediction results of vegetable market price.

关键词： vegetable price triple exponential smoothing model simple linear regression model grey forecasting model optimal combination forecasting model

作者: YE Lu LI Yuping LIU Yanqun QIN Xiaoli LIANG Weihong

作者单位: Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS/Key Lab of Tropical Crops Information Technology Application Research of Hainan Province, Hainan Danzhou 571737

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference(2013世界农业展望大会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 76-85

在线出版日期: 2013-06-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）