County-level Catastrophic Risk Assessment of Crops Caused by Flood in Northeast China
Purpose County-level catastrophic risk assessment of crops in Northeast China caused by flood was performed on the combination of extreme storm precipitation and flood vulnerability function of crops under the support of historical flood-affected records of crops,time serials of annual crops planting area, time serials of daily precipitation from weather stations and digital elevation model.Methods With Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method, daily precipitation for county can be interpolated by daily precipitations from its adjacent 3 weather stations.With bivafiate regression, flood vulnerability function of crops among the variables of crops flood-affected ratio, storm precipitation and average terrain of county was built; Using Block Maximum Method (BMM), annual extreme storm precipitations can be extracted from daily precipitation.Combined with flood vulnerability function, annual extreme flood-affected ratios of crops can be worked out.Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was applied in constructing probability density function (PDF) of extreme flood-affected ratio of crops.Based on the PDF, expectation and VaR were used to measure catastrophic risk, and then the county-level risk maps under average condition, 20-years retum, 50-years return and 100-years retum scenarios were generated.Results In general, the catastrophic risk of Liaoning is highest, and then Heilongjian and Jilin.In space, there exits 4 high-risk zones in which the first 2 highest locates in the east and the center of Liaoning, the third highest locates in the mid-west of Heilongjian, and the last highest locates in the center of Jilin.
Crop Catastrophic Risk Flood Risk assessment Vulnerability GEV BMM VaR Northeast China
ZHAO Sijian ZHANG Qiao
Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology, MOA, Beijing China, 100081
国际会议
2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference(2013世界农业展望大会)
北京
英文
127-139
2013-06-06(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)