Monetary Policy and the Prices Volatility of Natural and Synthetic Rubber in China

摘要：

　　Firstly, this paper gives two hypotheses about the impact of monetary policy on natural and synthetic rubber prices through theoretical and empirical analysis, and then validates the hypotheses based on monthly data from January 2000 to March 2013, using Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) and its extended models, which sort the variables in VAR models by Granger causality test and use generalized impulse functions.The results show that: the money supply and credit scale indices have long-run equilibrium relationships with natural and synthetic rubber prices, and loose monetary policy can boost the prices in the medium-long term; the variables about money supply and load scale have weak explanatory power for natural and synthetic rubber prices in short-term, and the proportions contributing to the forecast variances are no more than 10% in the early seven months after shocks; the impact on synthetic rubber prices from monetary policy is stronger than on natural rubber.

关键词： Monetary policy Natural rubber Synthetic rubber Prices VAR models

作者: LIU Ruijin

作者单位: Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (CATAS), Danzhou, Hainan, 571737,P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference(2013世界农业展望大会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 247-259

在线出版日期: 2013-06-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）