Model-based Prediction of Nephropathia Epidemica Outbreaks Based on Climatological and Vegetation Data and Bank Voles Population Dynamics

摘要：

　　Nephropathia epidemica (NE)is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV),which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus).Objective: The objective of this paper was to develop a method that allows model-based prediction 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics.Data and Methods: Two datasets were utilised to develop and test the models.These data sets are concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium.In this study we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR)model.

作者: Sara Amirpour Haredasht Daniel Berckmans C.James Taylor Piet Maes Willem W.Verstraeten Jan Clement Miguel Barrios Katrien Lagrou Marc Van Ranst Pol Coppin

作者单位: Measure,Model & Manage Bioresponses(M3-BIORES),Biosystems Department,Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Engineering Department,Lancaster University,Lancaster LAI 4YR,UK National Reference Laboratory for Hantavirus Infections.Laboratory of Clinical Virology,Rega Institu Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(KNMI),Climate Observations,PO Box 201,NL-3730 AE,De Bilt, M3-BIORES,Biosystems Department,Katholieke Universiteit Leuven,Willem de Croylaan 34,B-3001 Leuven,B Department of Experimental Laboratory Medicine,Katholieke Universiteit Leuven,Herestraat 49,B-3000 L

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: XVIth International Congress on Animal Hygiene(第十六届动物卫生国际会议(ISAH 2013))

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 432-432

在线出版日期: 2013-05-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）