Failure probability analysis of coal crushing and its engineering application
Accurately predicting failure probability of joint coal crushing under the condition of original formation will greatly reduce the risk of drilling in coal seam.At present,very little research is carried out for this problem,mainly due to the randomness of coal crushing caused by the uncertainty of the influence factors for coal crushing.Coal crushing influence parameters,such as mechanical parameters,in-site stress parameters,are tested by uniaxial compression and triaxial compression experiments,and the distribution types of influence parameters are determined using Latin Hypercube method.Considering the uncertainty of the coal crushing,the coal crushing phenomenon can be considered as a problem of failure probability.The first order second moment method is introduced to solve failure probability of coal crushing.Using the presented method,the failure probability of coal crushing is analyzed for WS5-5 Well in Ningwu basin,and the relation between failure probability and the influence factors is discussed.The results show that the failure probability of WS5-5 CBM well varies from 0.6 to 1.0; the corresponding distribution pattern is high for roof and floor coal seam and is low for central coal seam; the failure probability for coal seam section at depth 811.4m-812m is equal to 1; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationship with principal stress difference increasing and uniaxial compressive strength reducing.
coal crushing failure probability Hoek-Brown criterion first order second moment
Lisong ZHANG Xiangzhen YAN Zhonglan TIAN Henglin YANG Xiujuan YANG Yunhong Ding Xin WANG
College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering China University of Petroleum Qingdao,China Institute of Drilling and Technology China National Petroleum Corporation Beijing,China CNPC Langfang Branch of Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development China National P
国际会议
西安
英文
1-5
2012-10-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）