The Price Forecast Model of China-made Large Aircraft Based on Partial Least Squares Regression
This article adopts partial least squares regression method to forecast the price of domestic (China-made) large aircraft C919.With analysis of the pricing background and the relationship between performance index and price of foreign aircraft,we build preliminary model.And comparing with other modeling methods by calculating average relative error,we fred the preliminary model fits better.Considering the difference in environment between domestic and foreign market,we propose the concept of discount factor.And the factor is equal to 0.6529 by analyzing domestic and foreign small aircrafts of the same type.Finally through modified model we get the forecast price,namely 48.95 million dollars per aircraft.The forecasting model and discount factor have some reference value to the price forecast of domestic large aircraft.
domestic large aircraft price forecast partial least squares regression discount factor mathematical model
Pei Fang Lu Wang Shuhua Mao
Wuhan University of Technology,College of Computer Science & Technology,Peace Avenue 1040,Wuhan,Hube Wuhan University of Technology,School of Economics,Luoshi Road 122,Xiongchu Avenue,Wuhan,Hubei Provi Wuhan University of Technology,School of Science,Peace Avenue 1040,Wuhan,Hubei Province,China
国际会议
沈阳
英文
22-26
2012-09-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）