Extended probabilistic Typhoon forecast in South China Sea and operational weather forecast via satellite communication
Significant predictability is found in medium-range weather systems over East Asia,particularly in those convective hazard weather events bringing numerous obstacles to the transportation and infrastructures.Based on a most advanced global numerical model product,we developed a real-time warning system to provide medium-range (5-15 days) forecast on danger events.The forecast is probabilistic to help the decision makers do gain/lost estimation.In 2007 and 2008 three flooding events on the Brahmaputra River were well predicted 10 days in advance.The medium-range genesis forecast skill of typhoon,a relative small-scale but much destructive weather system,is explored on examples of Megi and Doksuri.For both typhoons the maximum winds and minimum center pressure are well predicted as well as the tracks.The forecast bias might be due to the global models resolution limit or the missing of statistical rendering.
Risk management real-time forecast numerical weather prediction ECMWF product probabilistic forecast
JIAN Jun WEBSTER Peter J
Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University 1 Linghai Road,Dalian,Liaoning 116026,P.R.China Civil and Environmental Engineering,Georgia Institute of Technology 311 Ferst Dr NW,Atlanta,GA 30332
国际会议
沈阳
英文
1684-1688
2012-09-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）