The Solution of the Delay of Water Shortage in System Dynamics Modeling for Water Management
To make the system dynamics model for the research of water management present the relationship between the water shortages and the development of social and economy accurately,this paper analyzed the causes of the man-made delay of water shortages in system dynamics model on the base of analyzing the calculation principle of system dynamics model,modified the model,and analyzed the key parameters and the errors in original model.And finally,this paper compared the two models by the simulation of some dates.The results showed that the errors caused by the man-made delay of water shortages depends on the sensitive of the development of social and economy on water shortage,water shortages the change of water shortage and the duration of water shortage.Eliminating the man-made delay of water shortages can reduce unnecessary errors in the policy researches of water resource management.
system dynamics water resource management time lag the loss of water shortage delay
Mao Jianhua Yuan Ruhua
Institute for Economics of Water Resources research of Hohai University Nanjing China
国际会议
青岛
英文
274-277
2012-07-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）