Traffic Congestion Charge Estimating Model
This paper proposes a traffic congestion charge estimating model based on Bayesian theory.For the growing urban traffic congestion,but the immature congestion toll pricing,in this paper,we convert the sample matrix into the overall moment by matrix estimation,and use the conjugate distribution method to determine the prior distribution.Then we get the posterior distribution based on Bayesian theory,by which we can calculate the traffic in the crowded road.Through the external cost analysis and accident cost estimation,we determined the cost of traffic congestion loss based on equalization principle,finally obtained the congestion charge.A road in London is selected to do the simulation and we get its traffic congestion pricing for a car is (f)10 every day.In this model,we can get more accurate and riskless results using Bayesian theory.The model considered comprehensive factors,so it can be used to assess the degree of congestion by quantifying the traffic congestion losses.It gives the theoretical basis for the collection of the congestion charge,and can help policy-making departments to make appropriate reference.
Congestion charge Bayesian theory External Costs Simulation
Shanshan Chen Zefeng Tao
Department of Transportation Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan China
国际会议
青岛
英文
321-324
2012-07-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）