An Empirical Study of the Relationship of Import-export and Economic Growth of Sichuan-Chongqing

摘要：

　　Using co-integration,the ECM model and Granger causality test,the paper has a empirical research on the relationship between imports,exports and economic growth on the data of Sichuan-Chongqing from 1990 to 2010.The results show that the structure of external trade has been optimized,External trade and economy have achieved rapid growth; There is a long and short-term dynamic equilibrium between the import,export and economic growth; Economic growth is the cause of expanding import and export,the export is not the cause of economic growth; there is only one-way causal relationship between External Trade and economic growth of Sichuan-Chongqing; There is a short and long-term dynamic equilibrium between the exports and imports,but there is not a causal relationship between them.

关键词： Stationayy test Co-integration analysis ECM model Granger causality test

作者: BAI Binfei ZHANG Feng

作者单位: Statistics Department of Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 5th International Institute of Statistics & Management Engineering Symposium (第五届(2012)国际统计与管理工程学术研讨会(IISMES2012))

会议地点: 青岛

会议语种:英文

页码: 641-645

在线出版日期: 2012-07-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）