Forecasting of Production Safety Situation by Combination Model

摘要：

　　The forecast of production safety situation is a complicated non-linear problem.The developmental change possesses no obvious trend of change over time and random fluctuation.Taking construction industry data as an example,four forecast models are adopted separately,namely the back-propagation neural network model,the moving average model,the exponential smoothing model and the combination model.Estimated results show that the combination forecast model can overcome the shortcomings of the single prediction model,and solve the forecast difficulties caused by random changes of the number of safety indicators of system status.The combination model is feasible for the forecast of the construction industry production safety situation.In fact,the production safe situation is affected by time,policies and other related factors.Decision makers should dialectically use the forecast result in the actual application and may carry on the weight adjustment to the forecast value.

关键词： neural network moving average model exponential smoothing model combination model production safety indicator forecast

作者: Xu Yabo Wang Tong Song Bingxue Xie Yushua

作者单位: Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection, Beijing, 10054, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2012 International Symposium on Safety Science and Engineering in China (2012安全科学与工程国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 132-136

在线出版日期: 2012-11-07（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）