The Trend Forecast Based on the ARMA Model of Urban Residents Per Capita Disposable Income in Shandong Province

摘要：

　　This paper tested the stationary and inter and partial correlation coefficients of the the 1979-2011 urban residents per capita disposable income time series of Shandong Province.It established the ARMA (1,2) model,using the SC guidelines to determine the order.Then it determined the model parameters and tested the errors of residuals and found that the model met all forecast requirements.Using this model,the paper predicted the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Shandong Province for the 2012-2014 forecast period; results showed that the average absolute error rate was low and urban residents per capita disposable income will continue to grow.

关键词： ARMA Model Urban Disposable Income Time Series Forecast

作者: WANG Jingbo LI Peizhe

作者单位: Department of Finance and Economics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,P.R.China,250031 School of Business,Shandong University of Political science and Law,P.R.China,250014

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Second (2012) International Academic Seminar of National Softpower (第二届国际软实力学术研讨会)

会议地点: 济南

会议语种:英文

页码: 583-588

在线出版日期: 2012-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）