Modeling of Intentional Attack in Risk Analysis Methods

摘要：

　　Recent years,intentional attack highly occurred,and has become one of the major public safety issues worldwide.This paper establishes an intentional attack model based on risk analysis methods,which includes a basic model of single attacker attacks single target,expanded models of single attacker attacks multi-targets and multi-attackers attack single target.The developed model is then validated by using the data of 98112 intentional attacks from the GTD database.Five key elements are considered,i.e.target type,attack type,weapon type,suicide attack or not and attack criterion.Occurrence probability,utility and risk are computed for analysis,where the defense of attack with high risk property is proposed to be strengthened.This paper provides a scientific basis for macroscopic decision making related to intentional attack.

关键词： GTD Intentional attack Public safety Risk analysis

作者: LI Shu-ying SHEN Shi-fei HU Xiao-feng YAO Wei

作者单位: Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,P.R.China,100084

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: ISCRAM ASIA 2012 Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (危机响应与管理信息系统亚洲区国际会议(ISCRAM ASIA 2012))

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 236-241

在线出版日期: 2012-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）