Traversal Grey Model for Water Consumption Prediction

摘要：

　　Grey model (GM) method is widely used to forecast water consumption due to the fact that it only needs little original data.To increase the precision of GM(1,1) and forecast urban water consumption accurately,we construct Traversal Grey Model (T-GM(1,1)) by minimum total residual sum of square.When we used the T-GM(1,1) to predict water requirement in some city,it showed that the mean absolute error,mean absolute percentage error and the maximum absolute percentage error are 0.77×106m3/a,3.56% and 12.58% respectively.Thus,the simulative precision of TGM( 1,1) is much better than that of GM(1,1).In summary,the T-GM(1,1) can predict the water consumption in the city and reduce the unstable factors that influence the forecast.

关键词： grey model water consumption prediction traversal grey model point based grey model

作者: Wei Bigui Zhang Hongwei

作者单位: School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Engineering Research Center for Cold and Arid Regions Water Resource Comprehensive Utilization, Ministry of Education Lanzhou Jiaotong University Lanzhou, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2012年水资源综合管理地理信息国际会议

会议地点: 兰州

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2012-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）