Modeling the Impact of Prognostic Errors on CBM Effectiveness Using Discrete-Event Simulation
the kernel of implementing condition based maintenance (CBM) is the selection of optimal maintenance opportunity which is estimated by prognostic tool.Without considering the randomness of prognostic result,the unnecessary preventive maintenance and unnecessary system failures cannot be avoided.In order to improve the system performance under CBM policy,the impact of prognostic error on CBM efficiency must be assessed immediately.So this paper attempts to address this concern through the evaluation and comparison a simple system performance under three maintenance policies including CBM,run-to-failure maintenance and scheduled preventive maintenance.For each of maintenance policy,a discrete-event simulation model is built to obtain two estimator that is mean time between missions accomplishment and average cost for component replacement because these estimator can directly reflect the requirement of system user.After a set of numerical experiments under various operating condition is completed,simulate results suggest that condition-based maintenance can improve system performance as much as 10% to 15% over scheduled preventive maintenance in summary.However,as the prognostic error increases,the effectiveness of CBM will be inferior to scheduled preventive maintenance and run-to-failure maintenance sequentially.
prognostics condition based maintenance discrete-event simulation
Lun Ma Jian-She Kang Chun-Yu Zhao Shan-Yang Liu
Department of Equipment Command and Management College of Mechanical Engineering Shijiazhuang, China Baicheng Ordnance Test Center of China Baicheng, China Department of Equipment Command and Management College of Mechanical Engineering Shijiazhuang, China
国际会议
成都
英文
518-523
2012-06-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）