Forecasting Mineral Commodity Prices with ARIMA-Markov Chain

摘要：

Scientific prediction has an important significance for establishing industrial policy and making plan in economic market. For the purpose of forecasting mineral commodity price accurately, an ARIMA-Markov chain method is proposed based on the study of time series methods and stochastic process theory. In order to test the prediction effect of the proposed method, a case study is carried out through using mineral molybdenum price values as research data. The results of the case study indicate that the prediction precision of our proposed method is much higher and less limitation to prediction step length than ARIMA model. It is proven that ARIMA-Markov chain performs an excellent property for mineral molybdenum price prediction.

关键词： Forecasting Mineral commodity price ARIMA Markov chain

作者: Yong Li Nailian Hu Guoqing Li Xulong Yao

作者单位: School of Civil and Environmental Eengineering University of Science and Technology Beijing Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2012 4th International Conference on Intelligent Human-Machine Systems and Cybernetics 第4届智能人机系统与控制论国际会议 IHMSC 2012

会议地点: 南昌

会议语种:英文

页码: 49-52

在线出版日期: 2012-08-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）