A Power Load Forecasting Method based on Matching Coefficient of Meteorological Factors and Similar Load Modification
It is of great significance to enhance the precision of power load forecasting for the security and stability of power system. According to the power load characteristics of both regularity and randomness, a novel load forecasting method based on the integration of similar load and recent historical load is proposed. In terms of similar load, this algorithm, firstly, utilizes matching coefficient of meteorological factors to quantify the similarity, then uses membership of day-type for the modification of similarity. After the process of filtering, the input sequence is made up of the combination of modified similar load and recent historical load. The results of simulation indicate that, compared with these forecasting algorithms merely based on similar load or on recent historical load, both mean relative error and mean square deviation of the algorithm presented in this paper are smaller and the precision of load prediction is higher.
GM(1 1) Similar load Load forecasting Matching coefficient of meteorological factors Similarity
Gang Zheng Sili Chen Shicai Fan
R&D CENTER Dongfang Electric Corporation R&D CENTER Chengdu, China Institute of Automation University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu, China
国际会议
南昌
英文
216-219
2012-08-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）