Avahan is a large-scale HIV/AIDS intervention that targets high-risk groups, including female sex workers (FSWs), in many epidemiologically heterogeneous districts in southern India. Contemporary study on the impact of HIV intervention mainly relies on mathematical modelling. We conducted an ecological analysis to identify which factors were associated with the changes in FSW HIV prevalence after Avahan started in 2004. 33 variables were derived for the regression analysis from two rounds of FSW surveys collected from 24 districts under Avahan Three statistical models each of which incorporates round 1 FSW HIV prevalence and another influencing factor (frequencies of FSWs consistent condom use with occasional clients in 1998, the difference of FSW HSV-2 prevalence and the difference of the proportions of FSWs ever asked for anal intercourse between two rounds) were obtained to explain the change of epidemic prevalence over the years. The research suggests the epidemic stages of HIV over the time will effect epidemic transmission in the high risk population and hence influence the HIV prevalence changes. Moreover, such changes also depend on characteristics of the high risk sexual behaviour between FSWs and their clients.
female sex workers condom use HIV prevalence ecological analysis
C.H Wen MC Boily M Pickles P Vickerman KHPT team
University of Nottingham Ningbo,China,C.H Wen,Assistant Professor in Applied Mathematics,University DIDE,Imperial College,London,UK,C.H Wen,Assistant Professor in Applied Mathematics,University of Not DIDE,Imperial College,London,UK,C.H Wen,Assistant Professor in Applied Mathematics,University of Not LSHTM,London,UK,C.H Wen, Assistant Professor in Applied Mathematics,University of Nottingham,Ningbo, Karnataka Health Promotion Trust,Bangalore,India,C.H Wen, Assistant Professor in Applied Mathematics