The Prediction to the Influence Factors of Xinjiang Public Health Service Demand and Evaluation on Relationship of Supply and Demand Assessment
Toobjectively reflect the urban and rural residents in Xinjiang Public Health Service supply and demand relations, provide a basis for decision making for local governments to make scientific planning of regional health development, this article selected socio-demographic changes in the epidemic model factors affecting the demand of public health services predictors, the cost of public health agencies as a measure of service demand, using a combination of gray system model, time series model, constrained nonlinear regression and multiple linear regression and other prediction methods, quantitative forecast of the demand for public health services in Xinjiang, to give a comprehensive evaluation of the relationship between supply and demand. The results show that: from 2011 to 2015, the main factor to cause the rapid increases of the public health service demand of the residents in Xinjiang is the total population of Xinjiang, the number of medical sensitivity, aging population and chronic disease prevalence. The continued growth of the demand-influencing factors, the average annual growth rate of the cost of public health agencies increased from 9.5％ to 13.6％. The rapid increase in demand for public health services by urban and rural residents in Xinjiang, formed a contrast with the reality of inadequate service supply capacity. Effective supply of urban and rural public health services demand hindered the social productive forces and socio-economic development in Xinjiang, and will have a negative impact on Xinjiang in 2020 with the national well-off society.
Public health service demand Influence factor Prediction methods
Erxiding MAIMAITI Ya-li DONG Xian-hua WEI
Graduate School of Management of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100190
国际会议
Second Joint Biostatistics Symposium(第二届生物统计国际研讨会2012)
北京
英文
190-202
2012-07-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）