Long Tail Theory and Crowding Out of Resource-Based Economies
This article drew on the long tail theory, and designed a crowding out index to measure the size of the crowding-out effect in a resource-based economy. There have been a large number of theoretical and empirical researches on resourcebased economy in China. These studies showed the problem of the resource curse exists in Chinas provincial level. The goal of the paper is to find the gap of the industries development between resource-based economies and developed areas of China. This article assumed that resource curse exists in resource-based areas on the basis of so many studies by lots of scholars over the years. This paper considered the existence of the crowding out in the resource-based regions, and their industrial structure may exist with a characteristic of smallheaded and short-tailed . Therefore, the crowding out effect can be measured by measuring the tail length. This paper used the data of 31 provinces in China in 2005 and established the relative index to reflect the difference of industrial structure of each province. This index used T stand for. We found that T values of resource-based provinces were all negative and these provinces had small head, shorttail feature and this feature indicated insufficient development of industries. Therefore, we may conclude that the crowding out existed in these regions. So For such regions, the T value can be used to reflect the crowding out effect of resource-based sectors over manufacturing industries, and the effect resulted in the manufacturing industry developed insufficiently. This paper argued that the weak linkage of the resource-based industries with other industries caused this characteristic. To achieve rapid transformation of the resources-based economy based on the weak linkage of industries in these regions, varieties of industries should be encouraged, especially the types of manufacturing sector, so as to extend the length of the tail industries. When the number of the tail industries increases, the number of head industries will increase correspondingly, and the T value will be positive. Therefore industrial structure will change accordingly and the whole economy of resource-based can reduce the influence of the resource industries.
Long Tail Theory Resource Curse The crowding out Effect
ZHU Liping
Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
国际会议
太原
英文
38-45
2012-07-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）