A Forecasting Method on the Proliferation of Technology Innovation in the Perspective of Risk Control

摘要：

For the high risk on technology innovation, it is imperative to predict the trend of technology development in this contemporary innovative era. This paper sets the proliferation of technology innovation as an object, applies the method of Monte Carlo, S Curve and Regression Analysis to study the relative and absolute rate of technology proliferation. The research shows an excellent result - a tiny relative error - in the forecasting of technology proliferation rate. Based on the forecasting and combining with its practical meaning, the dividing points of every stage on the proliferation of technology innovation are revealed. The strategies to achieve profits and minimize loss in every stage are made at last.

关键词： Proliferation of Technology Innovation Forecasting Monte Carlo S Curve

作者: JI Yingdong HOU Jue

作者单位: School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, P. School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, P.

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Conference on Transformation of Resource-based Economy and Internationalization of Higher Education(资源型经济转化与高等教育国际化学术研讨会)

会议地点: 太原

会议语种:英文

页码: 287-291

在线出版日期: 2012-07-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）