Bayesian Reliability Analysis of the Solid Rocket Motor
Reliability evaluation of critical systems such as rocker motors is generally a difficult and costly task in terms of the real testing.In this case, numerical analysis technique that can predict the reliability at the early stage of design can be a viable solution, from which possible design improvements to attain higher reliability can be made in a fast manner.In this study, reliability analysis procedure is developed for a solid rocket motor, in which the failure probabilities of the ballistic performance and structural safety are evaluated.In the design parameters, probabilistic information is given either from the previous knowledge or by the direct measurements.In the latter case, influences of the statistical uncertainties due to the insufficient data are considered using the Bayesian approach, in which the probability itself is treated as a random variable of a beta distribution conditional on the provided data.Double loop of reliability analyses are conducted for this, in which the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Kriging Dimension Reduction Method (KDRM) are used to construct the PDF of the failure probability.After all, the confidence bounds of the failure probability (or reliability) are obtained, which represent our degree of belief conditional on the provided data.
Solid Rocket Motor Reliability Physical uncertainty Aleatory uncertainty Bayesian framework
Wan-Beom Kim Jin-Hyuck Gang Ji-Seok Hong Ki-Wan Kim Joo-Ho Choi Hong-Gye Sung
Dept.of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering,Korea Aerospace University,Goyang-City,Gyeonggi-do,Republ School of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering,Aerospace University,Goyang-City,Gyeonggi-do,Republic o
国际会议
黄山
英文
1-8
2012-06-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）