Optimal Weighted Combinatorial Forecasting Model In the Airport Cargo Prediction

摘要：

According to the characteristics of the airport cargo, exponential curve model, unitary linear regression model and GM(1,1) model for the S individual airport cargo forecasts are conducted with good prediction, while the average absolute error of each model is no more than 5％. According to the criterion of minimizing the three single forecasting models forecasting error sum of squares, we establish an optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model, and use it to forecast the airport cargo with the average absolute error of only 1.73％, which further improves the predicting accuracy of the airport cargo.

关键词： Exponential curve model Unitary linear regression model Optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model GM(1 1) model

作者: WANG Jun SUN Zhihong XU Baoji

作者单位: Mathematic Staff room, Department of Foundation, Xuzhou Airforce College, Jiangsu Xuzhou, China, 221000

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 24th Chinese Control and Decision Conference (第24届中国控制与决策学术年会 2012 CCDC)

会议地点: 太原

会议语种:英文

页码: 3129-3133

在线出版日期: 2012-05-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）