Forecast of Tourism Passenger Based on the Improving Discrete Grey Model

摘要：

Based on grey system theory, an improving discrete grey model is built to forecast the tourism passenger source of China. Quantitative analysis was made to the four forecast models: original grey forecasting model GM (1, 1), improving discrete grey model, linear regression model and exponential smoothing model. The research suggests that, for small sample data, the improving discrete grey model has the highest precision. The improving discrete grey model is suitable to forecast of tourism passenger.

关键词： Improving discrete grey model Forecast Tourism passenger

作者: Shi Li

作者单位: College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2012 International Conference on Financial,Management and Education Science(2012年金融、管理与教育科学国际会议ICFMES 2012)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 114-117

在线出版日期: 2012-05-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）