Forecasting the Intensity of Thunderstorms in Nanjing

摘要：

In order to improve the validity of forecasting for thunderstorm’s intensity, the data of lightning location is used for classification the thunderstorms intensities.The sounding data is used for calculation the 47 convective parameters during June-August from 2008 to 2010.The relationships between the intensity of thunderstorms and 47 convective parameters are analyzed respectively.The convection parameters, which are closely related to thunderstorm’s strength, are selected as the forecasting predictors of thunderstorm intensity.On that basis, Logistic regression analysis is adopted to establish a thunderstorm forecasting models.By use of the testing samples, the forecasting model is tested.The result indicates that, the Hedike skill score of Logistic regression analysis is 0.396, and can identify 30％ of the severe thunderstorm and 60％ of the normal thunderstorm, respectively.It is obvious that Logistic regression has good indicative significance to forecast thunderstorm potential intensity.

关键词： Thunderstorm intensity Convective parameter Logistic regression

作者: Tian Kun Guo Fengxia Yang Ning

作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of information Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of information

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第七届亚太防雷国际会议

会议地点: 成都

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2011-11-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）