A lightning motion prediction technology based on spatial clustering method

摘要：

Lightning warning is an essential means and a key technology for lightning disaster reduction.Passivity is the main drawback of existing lightning warning methods.This paper present a lightning prediction technology based on spatial clustering method to predict lightning motion by utilizing realtime and historical lightning monitoring data of lightning location system.On the contrary to the existing passive lightning prediction and warning methods, this technology initiatively predicts the prospective lighting area.The independent, discrete, random-happen flashes are aggregated to different thunderstorm groups similar to thunderclouds by the spatial clustering method presented in this paper.The position prediction of lightning can be achieved by tracking these thunderstorm groups and calculating the movement direction and speed of them.The lightning prediction method is applied to a certain region of central China.The experiment result shows that the predicted and real positions of lightning are approximately consistent.The average prediction accuracy is around 75％.Important support will be provided for improving the accuracy and reducing the false alarm rate of lightning warning by the presented technology.

关键词： Lightning Lightning warning motion prediction spatial clustering

作者: Guo Juntian Gu ShanQiang Feng Wanxing

作者单位: Wuhan NARI Co.,Ltd,State Grid Electric Power Research InstituteWuhan,Hubei,China Wuhan NARI Co.,Ltd,State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Wuhan,Hubei,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第七届亚太防雷国际会议

会议地点: 成都

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-6

在线出版日期: 2011-11-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）