A Safety Approach to Predict Human Error in Critical Flight Tasks

摘要：

Based on accident analysis in recent years, aircrew error has become an increasingly important theme in the aviation industry, due to its crucial contribution to air incidents.The aircrew’s task, to provide safe flight under icing condition, has been analyzed in this research.The Human Error Probabilities of each action within the task are calculated in the light of the HEART taxonomy, followed by the prediction of total task failure rate.A tentative validation has been performed according to operational data of the US civil air transport system.The results show that the HEART technique can be used to predict human error rates of critical tasks in the aviation domain.

关键词： Airworthiness human error prediction aircraft icing task analysis HEART aircraft safety

作者: SHAN Kunlun LI Yan XU Ming

作者单位: China Aero-Polytechnology EstablishmentAviation Industry Corporation of ChinaNo.7 Jingshun Road,Chao China Aero-Polytechnology Establishment Aviation Industry Corporation of China No.7 Jingshun Road,Ch

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 航空器适航技术与管理国际会议 ISAA 2011

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 52-62

在线出版日期: 2011-10-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）