Energy and Environmental Scenario Analysis for Residential Sector Based on LEAP
To assess the energy demand and environment effect on residential sector, a bottom-up LEAP Henan model was developed to simulate three different scenarios from 2005 to 2030. In this paper, by taking Henan Province as an example, the simulation results showed that the implementation of policies and technologies to promote the degree of intensity of energy demand and utilization had a great impact on the energy consumption structure, and the greatest difference in energy demand in three different scenarios reached 9.8Mtce, and the CO2 emission produced by direct energy consumption from end users in three different scenarios had a downward trend. Rapid consumption of residential energy increases the deficiency of energy supply, and brings serious environmental problems, especially climate change caused by CO2 emission that has become the focus of public attention. In the field of residential energy in China, there are some residential energy analysis and their environmental impact assessments without clear and quantifiable targets, especially provincial residential energy analysis and their environmental impact assessments. Due to lack of support of detailed data, technical and economic analysis, the operability of analysis is poor and the results of the analysis are not ideal. Lack of analytical methods has a serious influence on proper formulation and implementation of energy development policies. LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) can construct the characteristics of data structure according to the availability of data1 and the analytical purpose and type, because of its operating flexibility and ease to use in the analysis and computation, as well as flexible data structure. Therefore, it is widely used in the fields of energy demand forecasting2141, impact of energy on the environment^161, industrial development planning71, climate change8, traffic911 and so on. In this paper, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system software was applied to build residential energy and environment model, compare and analyze environmental impact and energy demand of residents in Henan in different scenarios from 2005 to 2030, on the condition that an increased residential energy demand was ensured. It was important to analyze the policy of residential energy and explore the channels and solutions of energysaving, laying a foundation for formulation of energy development policy and energy warning in Henan province.
Residential energy LEAP environmental impact scenario analysis
Xu-Guangyin Qin-weifeng Ti- Shuguang Xu-yuchen
College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Zhengzhou 450002, China College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering.China University Of Mining &Technology .Beijing
国际会议
合肥
英文
3133-3138
2011-09-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）