Analysis on future climate change impact on inflow of Three Gorges Reservoir
Based on the output of the atmospheric general circulation model, the distributed monthly hydrological model was used as a tool for analysis the possible change trend of runoff under future climate scenarios in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and then the future change trend of the inflow of Three Gorges Reservoir was analyzed. The HadCM2 model was selected as the future climate scenarios. A large scale distributed monthly water balance model was developed and applied in the upper Yangtze River. The developed model was able to reproduce the historical streamflow record with the average NashSutcliffe efficiency value of 85.34％. Based on the future climate scenarios from the HadCM2 model, using the precipitation, average temperature as the model input, the impacts of climate change on the changes of runoff generation in the upper Yangtze River basin was analyzed. The result show that influenced by climate change, the inflow of Three Gorges reservoir will slightly decrease during the next 30 years, and then tended to increase in the next 60 years.
climate change runoff change the upper Yangtze River Three Gorges reservoir
Wang Miaolin Hou Baojian
Upper Yangtze River Survey Bureau of Hydrology & Water Resources, Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Wat School of River and Ocean, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
国际会议
The Fourth Yangtze Forum(第四届长江论坛)
南京
英文
96-102
2011-04-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）