The Research on Short-term Energy Demand Forecasting Model for Small Regional Aspects

摘要：

Since the energy demand forecast in small region, lacking of models and history data generally, the history data of energy consuming in one development zone in Guangdong is taken and analyzed. Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of some common single models and the applicable scale, one optimized hybrid forecasting model which is composed of optimized gray model and multiple linear regression is set up. The combined model can overcome the shortcomings of single model, and realize the principle that put information resources into use more efficiently and the error of the model is the smallest. The results indicated that this hybrid model is suitable to forecast the energy demand in small region and can provided scientific and valuable reference basis for establishing the energy strategic in small area.

关键词： energy demand forecast grey forecasting model multiple linear regression model hybrid model

作者: Shuangfeng Wang Ke Zhang Guoqing Li

作者单位: Key Lab of heat transfer and Energy Conservation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 4th International Symposium on Heat Transfer and Energy Conservation(第四届传热与节能国际研讨会 ISHTEC2012)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-5

在线出版日期: 2012-01-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）