Study on The Reliability of Travel Time in Transportation Network
Under the influence of traffic accident and imbalance between the daily traffic supply and demand, the transportation network of city is in instability condition. The random variation of traffic flow and capacity leads to the randomness of traffic in the transportation network. This paper focus on the travel time, according to the typical characteristics about traffic flow and Greenshields speed - density model deduces the dynamic travel time estimation model; obtains the random variables travel time’s probability density function with the Edgeworth series and then proposes the reliability model about traffic network travel time. In the end a simple numerical example was given to proved the effectiveness of the model , the model was solved by using the Monte Carlo simulation method .
the reliability of travel time transportation network edgeworth series
Ma Hongwei Zhou Xizhao FuLiyou
College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University School of Business, Shanghai D College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University School of Business, Shanghai Dianji UniversityShanghai
国际会议
三亚
英文
545-548
2012-01-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）