Discrete-Event Simulation in Evaluation of Medical Treatment Capability against Biochemical Terrorist Attacks
Large-scale victims would flock to the nearest hospital in a short period of time against biochemical terrorist attacks. It better treat these victims within the Golden Hour as more as possibly. In this paper, we proposed a new method to predict the medical treatment capability with two steps. First of all, we built a model to calculate the number of victims arriving in hospital with Monte Carlo method, and then simulated this model to generate the victims-flow arriving in hospital and made chi-square test to find out that these data distribution follow Poisson distribution approximately. Secondly, we built another model to calculate the medical treatment capability based on the generated data from the first simulation. As a result, we can get the capability and main factors influencing it The parameters in these models and procedures can be adjusted depending on specific scenarios, so that can be integrated in decision support systems of emergency management and play an auxiliary role for decision-makers.
medical treatment capability biochemical terrorist attacks discrete-event simulation
Juyun Wang Cheng Jiang Hua Yu
The School ofScience.Communication University ofChina.Beijing 100024,China College of Engineering.Graduate of Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100049,China The School ofScience.Communication University ofChina.Beijing 100024,China College of Engineering.Gr
国际会议
International Symposium on Emergency Management 2011(ISEM‘2011)(第六届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第七届年会)
北京
英文
337-346
2011-11-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）