The Forecast of Cultivate Land Quantity Based on Grey-Markov model a Case Study of Jiangsu Province

摘要：

The change of cultivated land resources concerns national food security and sustainable development of economy and society. So that, it is significant to choose a scientific and reasonable prediction. But, the methods alteration towards the arable land survey causes the system uncertainty. This paper employed the Gray-Markov Chain Model for the scale prediction of cultivated land and took an empirical research with a case of Jiangsu province. The results show that the Gray-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with GM (1,1), which is a reliable guarantee for the change of cultivated land resources.

关键词： Grey-Markov model GM(1,1) model cultivated land resources forecast

作者: HUAN Hong-yan TAN Qing-mei

作者单位: Department of economy and management Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,Chin Department of economy and managenent Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,Chin

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and System(2011 IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议暨系统与控制世界组织第15届年会)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 280-284

在线出版日期: 2011-09-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）