A Prediction Model of Chinas Air Passenger Demand

摘要：

In the process of the airlines demand management, air passenger demand prediction is an important basis for fleet investment and operating plan.This paper proposed a synthetic degree of grey incidence method to identify the key influencing factors of air passenger demand.With the key influencing factors, this method employed multiple regressions to reach satisfying prediction results.As a case study on the basis of GM(1,1) metabolic model, the proposed multiple regression model were used to predict Chinas air passenger demand of the year from 2010 to 2014.The prediction results identified that Chinas air passenger demand would still have rapid development in the next five years.

关键词： grey incidence analysis key influencing factors multiple regression model GM(1,1) metabolic model air passenger demand prediction

作者: Wang Yun Dang Yao-guo Wang Jian-ling Wang Zheng-xin

作者单位: College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and System(2011 IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议暨系统与控制世界组织第15届年会)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 351-354

在线出版日期: 2011-09-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）