The Intelligent Optimization of GM(1,1) Power Model and its Application in the Forecast of Traffic Accident

摘要：

In order to improve prediction accuracy of traffic accidents, an optimization GM (1,1) power model is put forward based on the characteristics of S-type and a single traffic accident peak.Specifically, an intelligent optimization method is proposed to optimist the parameter a using PSO algorithm and the optimization formula of background value in GM (1, 1) power model is given based on the integral mean value theorem as well as the intelligent optimization algorithm of background value is proposed.The number of traffic fatalities during the period 1996-2009 is fitted and predicted using the optimization GM (1, 1) power model, whose results show that the optimization GM (1, 1) power model has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the grey Verhaulst model.

关键词： GM (1,1) power model optimization of parameter optimization of background value PSO algorithm forecast of traffic accident

作者: QIAN Wuyong DANG Yaoguo Mu Sen LI Xuemei

作者单位: College of Economics and Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics Nanjing,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and System(2011 IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议暨系统与控制世界组织第15届年会)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 392-396

在线出版日期: 2011-09-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）