Modeling and Simulation of Stranded Passengers Transferring Decision-Making on the Basis of Herd Behavior
According to th e cas e of large c rowd b eing stranded at transpor tation h ubs (sue h as b us station, r ailway station, airport, etc.) in climate disasters, a model is designed to represent passengers transferring among transportation hubs on the b asis of h erd b ehavior. Bayesian ne twork and influenc e diagram ar e use d in mode I to c apture essential fe atures of the passengers de cisionmaking pr ocess, then c onsidering the influence of group behavior on the individuals, the trans ition probabilities of passengers are revised with passengers accuracy of belief and group information.A multi-agent simulation model is developed in Repast platform in Java lang uage.Through the simulation data, the influence of he rd be havior ove r str anded passengers tr ansferring mo de an d s ystem p erformance in different policies are analyzed, some policy recommendations for the government are proposed.
disaster management herd behavior multi-agent modeling an d s imulation passengers tr ansferring d ecision-making
SHEN Yang LIU Si-feng FANG Zhi-geng HU Ming-li
College of Economics & Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics Nanjing,China
国际会议
南京
英文
804-811
2011-09-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）