The Comparative Analysis of Four Kinds Of Exponential Modeling Methods

摘要：

To tackle the situation that the actual observation data are not enough, several methods including unbiased GM (1,1) Model, Ratio Modeling Method, Auto Regressive model and linear-logarithmic modeling Model, are proposed to be used to establish exponential model.Since different modeling has its own characteristics, and the fitting results of each modeling are different, hence it is difficult to evaluate and select these four methods.In this paper, according to the data of different rules and methods of numerical simulation, it is suggested to taking the root mean square error as an indicator.The advantages and disadvantages of fitting results of four methods are compared and conclusions are discussed, which provide some valuable reference to build a suitable exponential model.

关键词： exponential model unbiased GM (1,1) model Auto Regressive model Ratio Modeling Method numerical simulation

作者: Ruan Aiqing Wang Yinao Han Yuanjiang

作者单位: Private Economy Research Centre,City College Wenzhou University Wenzhou City,P.R.China 325035 College of Mathematics & Information Science Wenzhou University Wenzhou City,P.R.China 325035

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey System and Intelligent Services Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and System(2011 IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议暨系统与控制世界组织第15届年会)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 825-828

在线出版日期: 2011-09-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）