Analogue-dynamical Prediction of Numerical Model Errors Based on Principal Component Analysis

摘要：

A new prediction error correction scheme based on 74 circulation characteristics data provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Division of National Climate Center, which is designed to develop the Operational Numerical Forecast Model (ONFM) of the National Climate Center of China, and the skill level of the precipitation prediction for rainy season in the midlower reaches (MLR) of the Yangtze River by ONFM is obviously raised. The approach use principal component(PC) analysis to prediction error of ONFM. And we used different factors to correct the different PCs of the error of precipitation field. The comparative study results indicate that the effectiveness of the new analogue error correction (AEC) scheme is better than system error correction (SEC) scheme.

关键词： Principal Component Analysis Numerical Model Errors Analogue-dynamical Prediction

作者: Qiguang Wang Aixia Feng Guolin Feng Zhihai Zheng

作者单位: College of Physics Science and Technology,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou, China Laboratory for Climate Studies NCC of China Meteorological Administration Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 Eighth International Conference on Fuzzy System and Knowledge Discovery(第八届模糊系统与知识发现国际会议 FSKD 2011)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 812-815

在线出版日期: 2011-07-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）