Improvement and Application of Grey Prediction Model for Road Traffic Accident

摘要：

In view of the disadvantages of GM(1,1) model, which has low precision for prediction of violent nonstationary data series. Based on availability and characteristics of accident data, the GM(1,1) improved model and Verhulst improved model are put forward by using metabolism methods. Application of traffic accident data from 1996-2009 of Heilongjiang Province shows that the Verhulst improved model is more precise than GM(1,1) improved model for violent changing data series. The average precision of Verhulst improved model can reach 85％, which can basically meet the demand for road traffic safety management.

关键词： road traffic accident grey prediction model Verhulst model metabolism method

作者: DAI Lei-lei YU Chun-jun GU Jin-gang

作者单位: Traffic Management Research Institute of the Ministry of Public SecurityWuxi, China Traffic Management Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security Wuxi, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 Eighth International Conference on Fuzzy System and Knowledge Discovery(第八届模糊系统与知识发现国际会议 FSKD 2011)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 2094-2097

在线出版日期: 2011-07-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）