A Proposed Method for Calculating the Probabilities Required in BBNs for Cost Contingency Estimate

摘要：

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is proposed in previous research to determine the amount of cost contingency for construction projects. Errors of omission have been accepted as one of the elements of cost contingency in the construction industry. Recent research has developed a method for modeling contingency related to errors of omission that assumes that smaller cost items are more likely to be omitted than larger cost items. The aim of this paper is to connect the two previous researches together by providing a method to calculate the required probabilities, including prior probability and posterior probability, in BBNs method based on the model developed for cost contingency estimate regarding errors of omission. The conceptions of the various probabilities in BBNs method and the relationships between them are explained in detail. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate how the proposed method applies to a typical construction project.

关键词： errors of omission cost contingency bayesian belief networks probabilities

作者: Yuan PENG Steven DAVIS

作者单位: School of Civil & Environmental Engineering,University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia 2052 School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2011建设与房地产管理国际会议)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

页码: 70-73

在线出版日期: 2011-11-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）