Financial Risk Analysis of Chinese Metro PPP Projects
PPP has gained popularity worldwide, because it can solve scarcity of public funds and take advantage of technique and experience of private sector entities. However, the financial evaluation of PPP projects is complex and challenging. The traditional evaluation methods cannot address financial risks involved in PPP projects sufficiently. This paper identified major financial risks involved in financial evaluation of Chinese Metro PPP projects. Then financial risk analysis is performed with the use of Monte Carlo simulation. To better illustrate the process, a case study of Beijing Metro Line 4 is presented. Simulation results show that the value of financial indices with consideration of financial risks have a large difference from those without financial risks. Public sector has a large probability to provide subsidy to private investor for social benefit brought by the project. And lenders are also at great risk because of the insufficient income of metro lines. Output statics reveal that the operation revenue may have a big significance on the financial indices. Further, longterm interest ranks second for self liquidation ability of the project while construction cost and its escalation also impact the profit and debtpaying ability of the project. Scenario analysis related to equity ratio under two situations is also discussed and some advices are given for future metro PPP projects.
PPP financial risks Monte-Carlo simulation
Pingmei SHI Jiaoju GE Qiang LU
Department of Urban Planning and Management,Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen Graduate School, Department of Urban Planning andManagement, Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen GraduateSchool, Department of Urban Planning and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen Graduate School
国际会议
2011 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2011建设与房地产管理国际会议)
广州
英文
458-462
2011-11-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）