Early Warning Methods of Real Estate Bubbles-Empirical Research Based on Binary Response Model

摘要：

Binary response model was applied to the real estate bubble early warning. Based on the real estate data of Beijing during 1990-2010, selected the price-income ratio and the vacancy rate of commercial housing and other indicators this paper established the early warning model of real estate bubbles. The result of the empirical research about Shanghai, Shenzhen real estate markets validated the accuracy of the model predictions. In reality, this model could be used to the guard the production of real estate bubbles to achieve the aim of reducing risks of real estate markets.

关键词： real estate bubbles early warning model binary response model.

作者: Ying CUI Shiyou QU

作者单位: School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China 150001 School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technologyat Weihai, Weihai, China 264209

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management(2011建设与房地产管理国际会议)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

页码: 648-651

在线出版日期: 2011-11-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）