A Fuzzy Model of Scenario Planning Based on the Credibility Theory and Fuzzy Programming

摘要：

Uncertainty, complexity and paradigm shift are three challenges that are inherent in emerging technologies. Scenarios provide background for decision-making by clarifying possible paths of emerging technologies. Based on the analysis of three basic stages of empirical scenario construction, i.e. analysis phase, subsystem analysis phase and syntheses phase, credibility theory and fuzzy programming are introduced to dissolve scenario planning problems. This paper adopt such research road as (1) measurement of factors credibility, (2) analysis of pairwise factors compatibility, (3) eliminate incompatible scenarios through pruning rules, and (4) choice of scenarios through fuzzy programming. And then, the choice of scenarios can be conducted by expected value model. In the end, the further research fields are also discussed.

关键词： Scenario planning Credibility theory Fuzzy programming

作者: Zhong Guo Shi

作者单位: School of Management and Economics University of Electronic Science & Technology of china, Chengdu P.R. China No.4,Section 2,North Jianshe Road,Chengdu,P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 International Conference on Mechatronics and Materials Processing(2011年机电一体化与材料加工国际会议 ICMMP)

会议地点: 广州

会议语种:英文

页码: 2423-2426

在线出版日期: 2011-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）