The Forecast of Bicycle Ownership in Beijing based on Box-Jenkins Method

摘要：

Most of the time series are inertia, that is, with a flaccid.Through the analysis of this inertia, from the current time-series data, we can predict its future. According to sequence data of bicycle ownership in Beijing from 1979 to 2006, stationary time series is analyzed, then ARIMA models is established. Meanwhile, using the ARIMA model established, the forecast of bicycle ownership in revent years has been obtained.And by comparing the derived ARIMA (3,1,1) model results are more precise.

关键词： Box-Jenkins method ARIM bicycle ownership timing characterics forecast

作者: Wang Wenjing Hu Qizhou LU Huapu Sun Xu

作者单位: Institute of Transportation Engineering,Department of Civil Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,P.O.Box 100084

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 3rd International Conference on Computer and Network Technology(ICCNT 2011)(2011第三届IEEE计算机与网络技术国际会议)

会议地点: 太原

会议语种:英文

页码: 391-394

在线出版日期: 2011-02-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）