Multi-scale comparative study on international tourist arrivals and tourism foreign exchange income--Application of EMD method
Inbound tourism plays a great important role in Chinas tourism industry, in which there are two major impact factors, i.e., international tourist arrivals to China and tourism foreign exchange income. It is essential to find out the change rule of these two factors and their relationship, thus future inbound tourism development may be predicted more accurate. In this paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) dealt with non-stationary time series was introduced to examine the fluctuation rule and future trend of both the international tourist arrivals to China and tourism foreign exchange income, based on which we deeply investigated their relationship. Three main results are given: (1) Two time series of monthly data, i.e., international tourist arrivals and tourism foreign exchange income, are decomposed by four IMFs and one trend res respectively. The two factors almost have uniform average periods during fluctuation processes, i.e., 3, 6, 12 and 35 months. (2) In the change of international tourist arrivals, the period of 3 months is the most dominant factor to impact its fluctuation, whose variance contribution up to 55％; while the trend res of ascent with 41％ variance contribution is the most dominant factor to impact foreign exchange income. Slowly ascent with intense fluctuations caused by seasonal and annual change is the main characteristics of international tourist arrivals in recent years, while relatively rapid ascent with great period, i.e, about 3 years, is the main feature of tourism foreign exchange income. (3) The traditional viewpoint of completely positive correlation existing between international tourist arrivals and foreign exchange income may be controversial. We argue that condition of intense fluctuation of tourist arrivals is ongoing and the foreign exchange income still has continued growth. These conclusions will be helpful for tourism development and will provide theoretical guidance to construct tourism plan.
Multi-scale tourism foreign exchange income international tourist arrivals Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)
Lingling Chen Hui Yang
College of Humanities, Jingling Institute of Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu, China School of Resource and Earth Science, University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu, China K
国际会议
太原
英文
305-308
2011-02-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）