The Use of Wavelet Theory and ARMA Model in Wind Speed Prediction
In order to reduce the influence of wind power to power grid, and to reduce the rotating spare capacity and operation cost of power supply system, it is necessary to predict the wind speed. Because the wind speed has very good succession and randomness, it is quite appropriate to use Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model of times series to predict the wind speed. In order to improve the prediction precision further, this paper first use wavelet theory to pick up the low frequency parts through the decomposition of the whole wind speed, then use ARMA model to forecast the wind speed on the gentled data. This paper take the wind speed directly measured from a certain wind farm as an example. Practical example shows that: This combination model can effectively improve the wind speed prediction accuracy. It has certain practical value.
Li Ling-ling LI Jun-Hao HE Peng-Ju WANG Cheng-Shang
School of Electrical and Automation Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China Hebei Pro Hebei Province-Ministry Joint Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Field and Electrical Apparatus Relia
国际会议
西安
英文
395-398
2011-10-23(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)