Fuzzy Real Option Analysis for Highway Project Based on Credibility Theory

摘要：

Because of the uncertainty in the construction project investment, real option analysis (ROA) is favored by people than the traditional discounted cash flow method (DCF). Due to its huge amount of investment, long construction period, Irreversible investment, highway project has much more uncertainty. Taking into account the actual situation, such as the total investment, completion time, operating costs and other variables in the decision-making is not a fixed value, this paper characterizes the projects cash flow and investment costs as fuzzy variables. A fuzzy real option value analysis model for highway projects is formulated for this problem.

作者: Qing-e GUO Xue-qing WANG Zhen WEI

作者单位: College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE 18th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management(2011 IEEE 第十八届工业工程与工程管理国际会议 IEEM2011)

会议地点: 长春

会议语种:英文

页码: 393-395

在线出版日期: 2011-09-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）