Study on Risk Scenarios of Project Failure based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

摘要：

Project failure is a common outcome in complex large-scale project system because of the extensive risks. In this paper, risk scenario, which is one of the fundamental parts in risk analysis, is proved useful to estimate project failure risk. Based on the scenario theory in product system, this paper provided a methodology for identification of project risk scenario in project system. An approach based on Monte-Carlo simulation is used to generate scenarios and their frequencies. Besides, the importance measure for project risk scenarios was defined at a normalized way in the simulation environment. At last, a computational study was given to illustrate the approach, in which schedule and cost risks were taken into consideration.

作者: Yan-mei LIN Xing PAN

作者单位: School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 IEEE 18th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management(2011 IEEE 第十八届工业工程与工程管理国际会议 IEEM2011)

会议地点: 长春

会议语种:英文

页码: 1291-1295

在线出版日期: 2011-09-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）