Specification of Housing Bubbles Based on Time-varing Present Value Model:A Case of China

摘要：

This paper studies fundamental housing values and housing bubbles based on Time-varying Present Value model. Using data of four typical cities in China, our results preclude the existence of housing bubbles in Tianjin and Chongqing. We further preclude the existence of explosive and intrinsic bubbles, but include that of momentum bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai, which accounts for 18.4% and 8.5% of housing price deviations from fundamental values respectively. Housing price monitoring should be strengthened, and consumers expectation towards housing prices should be properly guided in order to restrict market speculations in China.

作者: Lei Feng Xueqin Tan

作者单位: Department of Land and Real Estate Management School of Public Administration, Renmin Univ.of China Beijing, P.R.C.

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Conference on Management and Service Science(2011年第五届管理与服务科学国际会议 MASS 2011)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2011-08-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）